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Kodėl pernai Lietuvoje vėl augo emigracija: ekspertų nuomonės

By BNS │ adiena.lt

Lietuvos statistikos departamentas trečiadienį paskelbė, kad išvykimą iš Lietuvos deklaravusių emigrantų skaičius pernai, lyginant su 2015 metais, išaugo. 2016 metais išvykimą iš Lietuvos deklaravo 51 tūkst. emigrantų, tai yra 14,5 proc. daugiau negu prieš dvejus metus.

Paklausėme ekspertų, kodėl pernai vėl augo emigracija.

R. Lazutka

R. Lazutka

Vilniaus universiteto profesorius Romas LAZUTKA: emigraciją galėjo lemti „Brexit“

„Jeigu imame Lietuvos kontekstą, tai čia tiesiog negerėjo gyvenimas daliai žmonių. Nors ekonomika auga ir atlyginimų vidurkis auga, bet vidurkis nereiškia, kad visiems atlyginimai auga. Nedarbas mažėjo, bet dabar galima sakyti, kad didele dalimi jis mažėjo emigracijos sąskaita, nes išvažiavo bedarbiai. O tie, kurie turėjo darbus, galbūt paliko darbo vietą buvusiam bedarbiui.

O dabar tarptautinis kontekstas. „Brexit“ gali būti kaip tam tikras ženklas dar suspėti išvažiuoti. Daug mūsų tautiečių yra Anglijoje, yra artimieji, draugai, giminaičiai, kurie tikriausiai kalba, kad Jungtinė Karalystė gali palikti Europos Sąjungą ir nebeįsileisti imigrantų tomis sąlygomis, kaip dabar. O tie, kurie dar iki „Brexit“ įsikurs ir dirbs, vargu, ar jie bus išprašyti. Todėl tie, kurie dar svarstė, ar išvažiuoti arba kada išvažiuoti, tai čia tikrai galėjo būti tam tikras paskatinimas suspėti tą padaryti, kol ne vėlu“.

A. Sipavičienė

A. Sipavičienė

Tarptautinės migracijos organizacijos Vilniaus biuro vadovė Audra SIPAVIČIENĖ: ekonominės situacijos blogėjimas yra didesnė grėsmė nei terorizmas  

„Pradėčiau nuo to, kad situacija ten, tai yra tikslo šalyse nepagerėjo, gal net atvirkščiai, ypač kiek tai liečia saugumą. Tai reiškia, kad visos priežastys yra čia, Lietuvoje. Priežastys išlieka panašios, kaip ir anksčiau, tik gal jautriau reaguojama.

Pirmiausia, ekonominės. Tyrimai rodo, kad, Lietuvos žmonių nuomone, ekonominės situacijos blogėjimas yra didesnė grėsmė, nei terorizmas. Statistinio ekonominio augimo pasekmes mato tik nedidelė gyventojų dalis – jie ir neemigruoja. Kitai, didesnei gyventojų daliai kainos kyla, atlyginimai nedidėja, todėl tokių šeimų ekonominė situacija tik blogėja. Kažkokių gerėjimo perspektyvų nematyti, minimalaus atlyginimo ar pensijos pakėlimas 20 eurų ar panašiai situacijos neišspręs.

Kita priežastis – socialinė nelygybė. Neskaidrus ir netolygus pajamų perskirstymas, prie kurio prisideda visokie „auksinių šaukštų“ skandalai ir panašūs reiškiniai, kai vieni žmonės negali sudurti galo su galu, o kažkur kitur pinigais tiesiog švaistomasi. Emigraciją taip pat lemia labai išsiplėtęs migrantų tinklas, kuris pats tampa migracijos trauka. Lietuviai kviečia kitus lietuvius kaip pigią darbo jėgą ar kaip gerus specialistus. Išlieka ir tradicinės emigracijos priežastys – mokslas, šeima, savirealizacija, didesnės galimybės, socialinė parama. Gali būti ir kai kurie nauji veiksniai – karinės intervencijos baimė ar panašiai. Čia tik prielaida.

Tam tikrą įtaką turėjo ir „Brexit“, tai yra paskatinti emigraciją į Jungtinę Karalystę. Galima tai įsivaizduoti kaip bandymą įšokti į nuvažiuojantį traukinį. Per 40 proc. visos emigracijos vyksta į Jungtinę Karalystę“.

Ž. Mauricas

Ž. Mauricas

„Nordea“ banko vyriausiasis ekonomistas Žygimantas MAURICAS: atlyginimai Lietuvoje ir Vakaruose skiriasi keturis – penkis kartus

„Tam yra keletas priežasčių. Pagrindinės yra tai, kad ekonomikos augimas yra ganėtinai vangus ir neypatingai perspektyvas. Ypač jaunesni gyventojai Lietuvoje piešia pakankamai pesimistiškas perspektyvas ir būtent dėl to nusprendžia savo ateitį sieti ne su Lietuva, o su kokia nors užsienio valstybe.

Kitas dalykas, mes turime labai didelę emigrantų diasporą ir, gerėjant susisiekimui, gerėjant komunikacijos galimybėms nuvažiuoti į Londoną, Dubliną ar Oslą tampa taip pat paprasta, o kartais net paprasčiau nei nuvažiuoti nuo Vilniaus iki Klaipėdos. Visa tai lengvina emigraciją, tą irgi reikia suvokti.

Trečias dalykas, be abejo, yra užmokesčio skirtumas. Lietuvoje jis yra keturis – penkis kartus mažesnis nei Vakarų Europos valstybėse ir tai yra per didelis skirtumas. Mažinant emigraciją, prioritetus reikėtų teikti darbo užmokesčio kėlimui ir lūkesčių gyvenimo Lietuvoje gerinimui“.

 

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